You don’t need to be a rocket scientist to see and feel what’s going on with the economy. What with gasoline averaging about $3.20 a gallon and home heating oil pushing the $4.00 a gallon level, the average Joe is being pushed to the limit. Foreclosures are rampant and you now see signs promoting “selling short”, meaning if you sell your home for less then the outstanding mortgage balance, the bank could forgive you of the difference… everybody is just looking to cut their losses. Food prices are climbing as is the cost of commercial travel. We can’t even get away on the cheap in order to lick our wounds.

During a period of time that we are experiencing the phenomena of both a recession and inflation, how do we begin to fight back? We cut back on expensive foods and eat more chicken, less clothes shopping, an end to manicures, car pool, don’t plan on trips, kill the vacations, stay home and avoid sitters, second and third jobs and anything else that can push us through the storm.

Even as a community we can feel the forces of the economic downturn. Town meeting was a perfect example as we raided the Sewer Commissioner’s Enterprise account to help balance the budget. We said no to studies, capital expenses and incurring the costs of a financial manager. School budgets are squeaking notwithstanding the need to fully education our children. There will be the casualties of the situation, but we manage to survive.

Because there must be a relevant point to this gloom and doom prologue, let’s get to it: What happens when a major developer goes through the same morass of economic woes? More particularly, what about the elephant in the room? You may have noticed that Thorndike’s guru, Lloyd Geisinger and new public official turned partner, Lindsey Wilson are absent from the community stage.

Nobody is providing updates to whatever progress may be in the works, the only place he has appeared is the Conservation Commission over a vernal pool issue and the Landfill Re-use Committee who have no further meetings expected until the safety of putting fields over a landfill is answered by an engineer.

Geisinger is, no doubt, feeling the effects of the housing market plunge and must react in ways no different then us. What follows is a storyline of what we, as a fly on the wall, might see within the Thorndike operation. We must keep in mind, as goes Thorndike, so go we.

Layoffs: It would be expected that Geisinger must get rid of all non-essential personnel with a fair mix of essential, high paid employees included. One can be assured that the company is working on a bare bones basis and Wilson, the newest member of the team, has been named hatchet man for Geisinger. Such staff will be promised a return some day, but that day can be longer then folks can wait.

Vender Debt: When things are good a company, like Thorndike, can utilize any number of subs to provide services such as drywall, plumbing, electrical, framing, HVAC, building suppliers, landscapers and the like. It’s easy to find yourself overextended after the good times become lost to the current reality. A company can simply default, stretch out payments or try to broker terms, like a percentage on a dollar. If the sub is really tight themselves, or believes that they will never do better, they could cut their losses and accept the token payment.

Pursue Rentals: In cases where a company’s condos, town houses or market value homes are just not moving, there will be a move to rent, always a dangerous gambit. Once rented, you can no longer promote the concept of “new.” Certainly with people losing their homes or looking to downsize, they need to live somewhere; rentals will be the final frontier. Rumors are that Geisinger’s business partner may have overextended himself in the New York market and turned to rentals in order to possibly stop the bleeding and take what you can get. Here in Kingston, Geisinger has been creeping upward with his projections of apartments to be built, and when. The apartment figure has risen from 100 to 200 and potentially beyond, being the first to be built. A bevy of apartments will provide no enhancements to considering the purchase of “market price” homes. With rentals the developer can begin the revenue flow despite the fact that it will become a detriment to what was expected.

Re-negotiate: When times are good you can promise them anything, and both sides can honestly believe the pie in the sky. When conditions change so too will the agreements. We’re already watching that happen with Geisinger when it comes to the Sewer Memorandum of Understanding. Already the developer has balked at the cost of engineering and wants to build his own plant and discharge on the adjacent Davis property. There has been no communication between the parties in many weeks, perhaps months. We may never see that new fire truck, a southbound slip lane, ball fields or any number of plums that seemed more real a year ago.

The aspect of negotiations is not limited to the town. Is there any doubt that Geisinger will want to change the terms of his agreements with property owner Mary O’Donnell? If O’Donnell has helped Geisinger bankroll his past and current expenses, the future money stream will either change or disappear. O’Donnell could actually end up in the catbird seat.

Money Sources: If there are projects in the pipeline (such as 1021 Kingston’s Place), it is reasonable to conclude that money is needed to salvage any hope of it ever coming to fruition. It is conceivable that Thorndike needs money. Likely sources are either banks or private financial sources. It is certainly within reason that the landowner themselves, in this case Mary O’Donnell could sink her own money into preserving the deal, or not. We read that portions of her property was for sale and received information that the land was refinanced. If accurate, could this be the money source? This would also be around the same time period that R. Lindsay Wilson suddenly went from municipal servant to Geisinger’s new partner. Did Wilson pay in for his partnership? This was also the same time frame that Wilson sold his half interest in the property that now houses Cancun. Some movie we saw suggested that you “follow the money”, that could be a hoot.

Further Nuisances: While all this economic collapse is killing the housing market, the Town and Thorndike is embroiled in lawsuits that also tend to take the heart out an already bleeding soul. Parties with ownership rights along Raboth Road have utilized two different attorneys to flush out issues involving process, conflict of interest and the exploration of voter fraud. The private Indian Pond Neighborhood Association and their secret agreement to trade votes for dollars remains a vital part of one suit with depositions possible to begin next month. The appeal process looms large in the future if the state is shown to continue their ‘slam/dunk’ brand of unbridled enthusiasm for the support of a housing plan they conceived. Pine DuBois has taught others the art of the ‘appeal’ and how it can cost a proponent time, money and a frustration lever that lead to pure, unadulterated frustration.

Cash Flow: Certainly the Kingston project must play second fiddle at this time to development interested that are more matured. Work in Norton, Plymouth and any other project that is more fully committed must be placed at the front of the line. You can’t have a project that has yet to lay a shovel to the ground creating a hemorrhage that can jeopardize flagship ventures. Pursuit of a slip lane costs money as does the engineering and possible construction of fields over a capped landfill. Also, don’t forget other commitments that were so much easier to promise when times were better. We also maintain that those ‘gifts’ were never taken seriously by the developer; after all, they could be changed by mutual agreement of the parties or at will with no described remedy for the transgression.

Your Name Again? Make no mistake about it, Lloyd Geisinger is a snake oil salesman and we bought in, hook, line and stinker. When all the politicians put their souls on the line with their unbridled endorsement of this 40-R massage they were on the glad had trail. Notice their silence of late. We hear nothing from the state, our own polls have gone quiet, and you even sense that the average guy on the street is feeling uneasy. If this thing gets placed in a deeper coma then currently exists, the polls will start developing their own exit strategy and may be harder to get a return call.

Change the Deal: If all else fails, change the deal, go where you can do a money grab, irrespective of any planning consequence. With all the potential foreclosures, build more and more apartments…just enough to not have to build a road, or buy a fire truck or a well, or a ball field…after all, we’ll all understand…it’s the economy, we’re in bad times…we’re in a survival mode…who could have predicted this? Wanna know who? Lloyd Geisinger, his investors and hot shot analyst “super” lawyer R. Lindsay Wilson. This is their field, somebody, or some collective somebody’s are now in the dog house of economic pain, and aren’t we all going to feel a little silly if we don’t get to keep the $600,000 incentive check and have to take down those dumb pictures snapped by a shutter lens during those glory days of last year.

Well, that’s our story. Some facts, some conjecture, a touch of anger, a bit of awe and the gnawing question…what can we expect now?

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